PATNA, India — Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA) faces a tough regional election next month in the eastern state of Bihar, as anger over unemployment and voter list irregularities fuels voter frustration and could test the strength of his coalition ahead of key polls in other states.
Bihar, one of India’s poorest and third most populous states with over 130 million people, has long been a political battleground. Its chief minister, Nitish Kumar — a veteran ally-turned-rival-turned-ally of Modi — currently leads the state government as part of the NDA.
Any cracks within the NDA in the upcoming Bihar assembly vote could carry national implications for Modi, whose coalition holds 293 of 543 seats in Parliament, with a strong voter base mainly in Assam. Elections in Assam, West Bengal, and Tamil Nadu are expected to follow within months, making Bihar a crucial early test.
Women Emerge as Key Voting Bloc
An opinion poll by the Vote Vibe agency on October 8 showed the NDA holding a narrow 1.6 percentage point lead over the opposition alliance led by the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) and Congress party.
The agency said the NDA’s slight edge stemmed from recent welfare programmes, including cash transfers worth ₹121 billion ($1.37 billion) to 12.1 million women under a self-employment subsidy.
However, local activists say women voters could still swing the election.
“Women take the decisions because the men are not here,” said Nivedita Jha, an activist in the state capital Patna. “They talk about the opposition which has promised more money if they come to power, and my understanding is that they trust the opposition more.”
Many men from Bihar migrate to cities such as Mumbai and New Delhi for work and may not return to vote, leaving women as the decisive electoral base in many households.
Anger Over Voter Roll Errors
Concerns over voter list revisions have also sparked discontent.
In one case, 85-year-old Jitni Devi said she was removed from the rolls and consequently lost access to her pension.
“They have declared me dead,” she told Reuters. “People in my village tease me as a dead woman, and bank officials shoo me away when I go there to withdraw my money.”
The state election commission did not respond to questions about Devi’s case, while the federal poll body said all complaints are investigated thoroughly.
Youth Unemployment Still a Burning Issue
Although government data show unemployment among 15–29-year-olds fell to 9.9% in 2023–24, down sharply from 30.9% in 2018–19, economic anxiety remains high among Bihar’s youth.
“For me, I have seen my father going out of Bihar for work, so the issue of jobs matters the most,” said Babloo Kumar, a 25-year-old first-time voter.
Political strategist-turned-activist Prashant Kishor’s new party, Jan Suraaj, is seeking to tap into that frustration.
“Joblessness, migration, increasing debts, loss in agricultural revenue are the issues in Bihar,” said party president Uday Singh. “There is a big dip in Modi’s popularity here.”
The opposition alliance has pledged to introduce a law guaranteeing at least one government job per family if it comes to power.
BJP Confident Despite Challenges
Despite the headwinds, the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) says it is confident of victory.
“The NDA alliance is in a very solid position,” said Guru Prakash Paswan, a BJP spokesperson. “People have strong faith in Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s vision.”
Voting will take place on November 6 and 11 for 243 assembly seats, with results to be announced on November 14.
